US think tank MacroPolo has released its latest "Global AI Talent Tracker 3.0," showing that China leads the world in producing elite AI researchers by undergraduate education while many of them work at US institutions.
Global AI Talent Tracker · MacroPolo
The AI race is a talent race — and it hinges on who keeps the brains
China educates the most elite AI researchers in the world — but 72% of them now work in the US. The real battleground is not chips or models, but attracting and retaining talent.
38%
of the world's elite AI researchers were educated in China — the largest source
72%
of those China-educated researchers now work in the United States
80%
US retention rate — it keeps the talent it attracts
Who retains its elite researchers
Share of domestically educated researchers who stay and work at home.
Elite researchers produced, by place of education
Authors at NeurIPS 2024, ICML 2024 and ICLR 2025.
The US edge
A world-class ecosystem of universities, labs and companies pulls in global talent — and keeps it. Quality, networks and financial muscle sustain dominance despite fewer home-grown researchers.
The fragile point
That advantage rests on immigration policy. Tightening H-1B or student visas could directly erode US AI capability, while better pay and conditions abroad may begin lifting retention elsewhere.
"The essence of AI competition is a talent race — chips and models are merely downstream."
India educates 10% of elite researchers but retains just 2%, sending 80% to the US — the dilemma of being a talent supplier. The outcome of the AI race may turn less on compute than on immigration, STEM education and compensation.
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