Tesla's vehicle deliveries have stalled since peaking in 2023, falling for a second straight year in 2025, while capital spending on AI and robotics is set to surge past $25 billion in 2026.
July 2, 2026 · Tesla
The EV engine has stalled — so Tesla is betting $25B+ on AI and robots
Tesla's car deliveries peaked in 2023 and have fallen for two straight years, while capital spending on AI compute, Dojo, and the Optimus robot is set to more than triple in 2026 — a "peak spending year" with free cash flow expected to turn negative.
>$25B
2026 CapEx target — roughly 3× the 2025 level
~1.63M
2025 global deliveries — a 2nd straight annual decline
-7%
U.S. sales in 2025 (~589,000 units)
CapEx is tripling — the core is flat
Capital spending, in billions of USD, drawn to scale
Roughly a 3× jump — spanning AI compute, the Dojo supercomputer, Optimus factories, Cybercab/Semi plants, Terafab, and a $2B stake in xAI.
Deliveries peaked in 2023
Global vehicle deliveries, millions of units
BYD overtook Tesla in global BEV sales in 2025 — flat for nearly three years.
Bulls
Heavy spending underpins long-term growth in Robotaxi and the Optimus humanoid — Tesla reframed as an "AI, robotics and energy company."
Skeptics
Cash burn before monetization, unclear AI ROI, weak Cybertruck sales and FSD delays — a risk the core business is being neglected.
Robotaxi and Optimus remain in development; the $25B bet tests investor faith in unproven AI. The open question: when — and how much — that spending turns into revenue.
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