AI productivity metrics become unreliable as companies game the numbers

As companies scramble to justify billion-dollar AI investments, productivity measurement has become so unreliable that reported gains may mean almost nothing. A National Bureau of Economic Research study of 6,000 executives revealed a striking contradiction: while two-thirds of firms deploy AI tools, nearly 90% reported zero impact on employment or productivity over the past three years. Yet these same executives forecast productivity increases ahead, raising questions about whether improvements exist or simply remain unmeasured.