The Avon and Somerset Police and Bristol City Council in England developed at least 23 predictive models over the 2010s to score residents on their likelihood of committing or suffering crimes, an investigation has revealed. The system covers around 500,000 people — most of the local population — the majority of whom were never told.
June 25, 2026 · Avon and Somerset Police
A Secret Crime-Prediction Machine, Built on Half a Million People
Over more than a decade, an English police force quietly ran at least 23 predictive models scoring residents as likely offenders or victims — most never told it existed, and some results couldn't be trusted.
23
predictive models held as of 2024
~500k
people in the "Think Family Database"
~300k
people in the Offender Management App
36k+
scores examined across 13 models
How accurate were the predictions?
An independent analyst rated some results "genuinely poor." Each column shows correct vs. wrong predictions, drawn to scale.
Burglary risk model
Below 10% precision
for more than three years (police say it was never deployed)
Offender Management App
Correctly flagged 1/3 of actual offenders
1/4 of those flagged were false positives
What went into the models
Sensitive data was merged without residents' explicit consent, under "legal gateways":
Police intelligence
Housing status
Mental health records
Teenage pregnancy
Parenting courses
Free school meals
Quietly retired
≥2
child-exploitation models (CCE / CSE) were dropped after council staff judged they could no longer be trusted.
The project lead's case
It improved understanding of risk and vulnerability, and efficiently helped protect children and families. Residents would accept data use for support — it's misuse they reject.
The critics' warning
A "messy" operation with "function creep," variables acting as proxies for poverty, and near-total opacity for the ~250,000 people affected. As one review put it: "legality is not the same as legitimacy."
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