Prediction market platform Polymarket launched a new market on July 1, 2026 (US Eastern Time) forecasting when Anthropic's next Claude Opus model will become publicly available, titled "Next Claude Opus released by...?"
July 1, 2026 · Prediction Market
Traders Bet the Next Claude Opus Lands in Late 2026
A new market wagering on when Anthropic ships its next "Opus" model prices October–December 2026 at roughly 93% — even as no official announcement exists.
~93%
Odds for Oct 31 & Dec 31, 2026 windows
42d
Gap from Opus 4.7 to 4.8 — shortest ever
~$2.4k
Volume shortly after the market opened
MARKET ODDS BY RESOLUTION DATE
Columns show implied "Yes" probability by each resolution date.
RECENT OPUS RELEASE CADENCE
Opus 4.7
Apr 16, 2026
SW engineering, vision, long-horizon gains
→
Opus 4.8
May 28, 2026
Coding/agentic + reliability; price held flat
→
Next Opus
Unannounced
Market leans Oct–Dec 2026 (~93%)
Resolution Rules
A model must be officially named "Opus" and publicly available to count.
✓ Qualifies
Opus 4.9 / 5.0 reaching general availability — open beta or public waitlist included.
✗ Does Not Count
Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, Mythos — or any closed/private beta with no public access.
Developer praise
Handles large codebases and long-horizon autonomy; called "staff-engineer level" for agent building. Flat pricing at $5 in / $25 out per M tokens.
Open questions
High cost sparks "use Sonnet instead?" debate; safety routing in high-risk domains and context management flagged as friction points.
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