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Allianz Chief Economist Warns AI's Economic Impact Will Be Uneven

July 3, 2026 at 04:53 EDT

Sales & Business
Infra & Chips
Finance

Ludovic Subran, Chief Investment Officer and Chief Economist at Allianz, said AI's impact on economies is likely to be less even than the market hype would suggest, striking a cautious note against the prevailing optimism. The remarks, reported by Bloomberg on July 3, 2026, were based on an interview at the Aix-en-Provence Economic Forum in France.

Aix-en-Provence Economic Forum · Allianz

The "Darwinian Effect" of AI: an uneven shock, not an even boom

Allianz's Ludovic Subran warns AI hopes may reflect market "exuberance." The real impact splits sharply — winners and losers across countries, sectors and skills.

23.3%

of jobs in major economies affected within 1–3 years

28.7%

U.S. jobs exposed — ~52.5 million roles

~40%

of cross-country youth-unemployment variation explained by AI exposure

Share of jobs exposed to AI, by country

The disparity is stark — the U.S. is more than three times Italy's exposure.

28.7%

17.7%

16.2%

Germany

14.7%

France

12.4%

Spain

9.2%

Italy

How the 23.3% breaks down

Not all impact is displacement — most affected jobs are reshaped, not lost.

10.4%

Reorganization

5.3%

Augmentation

7.6%

Outright displacement

A "K-shaped" split — and a rising energy bill

Higher-skilled workers benefit while middle-tier and younger workers face pressure. Youth unemployment has risen since late 2022 in high-adoption countries.

U.S. data-center share of electricity

~5%

now

→

~9%

by 2030

Power demand roughly doubles.

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