A survey of more than 400 senior data center industry executives found that 68% expect a rise in distressed situations over the next 12 to 18 months, as soaring energy costs, local opposition and stretched capital markets collide with the AI-driven construction boom.
2026 Global Data Center Market Outlook · 400+ Senior Executives
The AI Data Center Boom Braces for a Wave of Distress
Even as demand for AI computing stays strong, most industry leaders now expect projects to buckle under soaring energy costs, local opposition and stretched capital — a paradox of aggressive expansion meeting hard physical and financial limits.
68%
expect a rise in distressed situations over the next 12–18 months (up from 66%)
49%
have demand visibility of less than 12 months — the overbuild risk
65%
still call GPU-powered data centers a growth-phase market
The Workload Shift: Inference Takes Over
What executives expect to drive future demand — a change that reshapes how facilities are built.
98%
Inferencing
biggest driver
33%
Training
expect growth
72% also anticipate new silicon architectures — inference needs a more varied hardware mix than concentrated GPU training clusters.
Energy Is the Defining Constraint
Grid congestion and permitting hurdles in Tier 1 hubs are pushing operators off the public grid.
85%
say behind-the-meter, on-site generation is the most realistic path (esp. above 500 MW)
80%
point to the growing role of nuclear, including small modular reactors
Top Drivers of Expected Distress
Confidence Holds
80% expect assets to hold at 15–25× EBITDA
57% plan to add capacity — many doubling to 50–250 MW
70% expect a pickup in M&A within a year
Alarm Bells
61% expect distress across the industry
Revenue lags rising costs as builds accelerate
REITs retreat to Tier 2 markets like Denver
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