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Census Paper Finds AI-Exposed Majors Faced Lower Starting Pay After ChatGPT

September 14, 2026 at 15:21 EDT

Recruiting & HR
Foundation Models

Graduates from the college majors most exposed to artificial intelligence saw their initial employment probability fall by five percentage points and their full-quarter starting earnings decline 13% after ChatGPT's late-2022 debut, according to a new U.S. Census Bureau working paper. The authors say the early earnings hit is similar in scale to entering the labor market during a large recession.

September 2026 | U.S. new graduates

AI exposure is showing up at career entry

Graduates from the most exposed majors saw weaker first employment and lower initial earnings after ChatGPT's release, with the pressure centered on software-linked fields.

5 pp

Initial employment decline

13%

Initial earnings decline

29%

Bachelor's degrees covered

Earnings hit: initial vs. two years later

The earnings decline narrowed with time from graduation, but remained visible for the most exposed majors.

Where the pressure shows up

Exposed majorSoftware-linked fields enter the market

→

Weaker matchLower immediate employment and pay

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Sector shiftMore movement into lower-paying industries

What the data clarify

The measured impact is concentrated at labor-market entry, where first jobs shape training, earnings and later mobility.

What remains uncertain

The evidence does not fully separate AI from monetary tightening, tech contraction, post-pandemic hiring shifts and changing demand for skills.

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