J.P. Morgan's strategy team projects that U.S. net equity issuance could surge to roughly $1.2 trillion in 2027, driven by AI-related funding needs and mega IPOs such as SpaceX.
The Re-Equitization Wave
AI's Capital Hunger Set to Send Equity Issuance Soaring 500% to $1.2 Trillion
JPMorgan strategists project U.S. net equity issuance could rocket from ~$200B in 2026 to ~$1.2T in 2027 — the largest two-year issuance cycle since the late 1990s, as hyperscalers and AI mega-IPOs reverse two decades of shrinking share supply.
+500%
YoY surge in net equity issuance, 2026→2027
$12T
Buybacks over ~two decades of "de-equitization"
$85.7B
SpaceX IPO estimate — among the largest ever
Net Equity Issuance
From ~$200B to ~$1.2T in a single year
Each block ≈ $200B · the 6× taller column shows the projected re-equitization spike
The Underlying AI Capex
Top-five tech firms: from >$600B to >$1T
Each block ≈ $200B · capex demand drives the equity & debt issuance wave
Already Reshaping Debt Markets
AI-related high-grade debt has reached ~$1.2T — overtaking banking to become the largest segment.
~$570B
Forecast AI-related corporate bond issuance, 2026
+2.5%
Estimated AI capex contribution to U.S. GDP growth, 2026
The Bull Case
A sound funding mechanism for AI investment — fueling growth, with capex potentially adding ~2.5% to U.S. GDP in 2026.
The Caution
A flood of equity supply could compress valuations and lift volatility — drawing comparisons to the dot-com bubble's oversupply.
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