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AI Futures Project Pitches Citizen's Dividend Starting at $45,000 in 2032

July 9, 2026 at 15:18 EDT

Policy & Regulation
Foundation Models

The nonprofit forecasting group AI Futures Project on July 9, 2026 published a scenario titled "AI 2040: Plan A" centered on a "Citizen's Dividend" that would redistribute the economic gains of AI to citizens. The payment would begin at roughly $45,000 per American in 2032 and scale to about $1 million by 2035.

July 9, 2026 · AI Futures Project

AI 2040 "Plan A": A Citizen's Dividend to Share the Machine's Wealth

A recommendation — not a prediction — for redistributing AI-driven abundance: pay every American a dividend pegged to compute production, funded by permit fees on compute and robots, scaling from tens of thousands to roughly $1 million within a few years.

The dividend, per American per year (real values)

~$45k

2032 start
(~$25k alt. est.)

~$1M

by 2035

~$1.6M

2035, compute-pegged
amid extreme deflation

Figures are modeled assumptions in inflation/deflation-adjusted real terms and vary with the model. Columns scaled to value.

Compute-pegged

Payments track the volume of compute production — not a fixed amount, unlike traditional UBI.

Funded by fees

Permit fees on compute and robots capture gains as AI and machines do most valuable labor.

Wealth, not income

A shared floor akin to sovereign wealth dividends in Alaska or Norway.

The Plan A timeline — scale cautiously, then pause

2029

US–China deal to slow the race; transparent, audited compute via "whitesites."

→

2030–2035

Scale AI to "top-human-expert" levels, then pause for alignment and safety.

→

2040

Superintelligence reached — only after safety work is complete.

Supporters see

A concrete "floor" for sharing AI wealth
Tying payouts to growth curbs inequality
Keeps AI markets competitive and transparent

Critics note

Enforcing international compute controls is hard
Political feasibility is unproven
A forward-looking scenario, not enacted policy

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