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Prediction market puts 74% odds on GPT-5.6 public release around July 7

July 2, 2026 at 13:59 EDT

Foundation Models
AI Agents

On the prediction market Polymarket, the odds that OpenAI's new GPT-5.6 model reaches general public access around July 7 are hovering near 74%. OpenAI itself, however, has not announced a specific release date, and the model currently remains in limited preview.

June 26, 2026 · OpenAI

GPT-5.6 Debuts in Limited Preview — Then Held Back by Washington

OpenAI previewed a three-model family — flagship Sol, balanced Terra, and fast Luna — but general access is delayed at the U.S. government's request. The company says such restrictions "should not be the norm."

88.8%

Sol on Terminal-Bench 2.1 (coding & agentic)

1.5M

Sol's expanded context window (tokens)

~6 wk

Release cadence — updates roughly every six weeks

Terminal-Bench 2.1 — Coding & Agentic Score

Columns scaled to score (%). All values share the same benchmark.

91.9%

Sol Ultra

88.8%

Sol

88.0%

Claude Mythos 5

83.4%

GPT-5.5 (prior)

The Three-Model Lineup & Preview Pricing

Sol

Flagship · top performance

$5 in · $30 out /1M

Terra

GPT-5.5-level at ~2× lower cost

$2.50 in · $15 out /1M

Luna

Fast · low cost

$1 in · $6 out /1M

What impresses

Cyber tasks matched or beat rivals using ~⅓ the output tokens
Terra's cost efficiency and Sol Ultra's sub-agent approach
Strong edge in coding & agent workflows

What frustrates

Gains seen as incremental, not a leap
Most users blocked by government limits
Cyber & bio rated "High" under preparedness framework

Prediction markets · When does general access open?

70%+

bet on a July 7 release. The market resolves on general access (open beta or rolling rollout) — the current limited preview does not count.

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