Prediction Market Puts GPT-6 September Debut at 69%

On the prediction market platform Polymarket, contracts betting that OpenAI's next-generation model "GPT-6" will be publicly released by September 30, 2026, are trading at roughly 66-69% Yes probability. This is not an official OpenAI announcement but an aggregate forecast by market participants. Under the market rules, a general release (open beta or a public waitlist) is required for resolution, while limited previews or private access do not count. Market pricing puts the odds at around 66% for end of September, rising to roughly 88% by end of December, placing GPT-6's release in the third-to-fourth quarter of 2026 as the base case.