WTO Doubles Trade Growth Forecast as AI Infrastructure Dominates Global Commerce

The World Trade Organization has sharply revised upward its global merchandise trade forecast for 2026 to 3.9 percent, more than double its March estimate of 1.9 percent, driven almost entirely by surging demand for artificial intelligence infrastructure. AI-enabling goods—semiconductors, servers, and related equipment—accounted for 47 percent of global merchandise trade expansion in the first half of 2026, with trade in these products surging 67 percent year-on-year during that period, according to the WTO's latest assessment.