Polymarket Opens Market on Whether OpenAI or Anthropic Will Claim Recursive Self-Improvement in 2026

Polymarket opened a new AI prediction market asking whether OpenAI or Anthropic will announce that it has achieved recursive self-improvement by Oct. 31 or Dec. 31, 2026, putting a tradable price on one of the industry's most consequential technical thresholds. Early pricing showed the Dec. 31 contract at about 17% and the Oct. 31 contract at about 16%, with only $89 in volume, making the market a thin early signal rather than a broad consensus.