On the prediction market Polymarket, the odds that OpenAI will conduct an IPO during 2026 have fallen sharply to around 29%, triggered by reports that the company may delay its listing to wait for a steadier market.
June 25, 2026 · OpenAI
Advisers Press Altman to Push the OpenAI IPO to 2027
After SpaceX's blockbuster listing wobbled, the internal view favoring a wait for calmer markets is gaining ground — even as Sam Altman holds firm on a $1 trillion-plus debut.
~29%
Market-implied odds of a 2026 IPO, down sharply after the report
$852B
Latest private valuation, March 2026
$1T+
Listing valuation Altman still targets
The warning sign · SpaceX share price
A record-setting June listing slid soon after — the "choppy" market reinforcing caution at OpenAI.
A ~24% drop after one of history's largest IPOs ($85B raised, $1.77T valuation) — exactly the volatility OpenAI's advisers want to avoid.
The road so far · key dates
Jun 8, 2026
Confidential S-1 filed with the SEC
→
Jun 25, 2026
Advisers urge delay; market odds fall
→
2026 → 2027?
Final call pending markets & RSI progress
CFO Sarah Friar — cautious
Long wary of a 2026 listing, citing the scale of spending and readiness for the reporting duties of a public company. Some internally call 2026 "aggressive."
CEO Sam Altman — eager
Says it will happen "within the next year" (2027 included) and holds the $1T+ goal — yet notes a delay could pay off if recursive self-improvement advances.
The competitive backdrop
Anthropic reportedly filed its own confidential statement in early June, with a wave of large AI listings expected. OpenAI must time the optimal debut against market sentiment and rivals — without giving up its target valuation of over $1 trillion .
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