The prediction market Polymarket on July 3, 2026 launched a new market asking whether the US federal government will remove public access to a major AI model during 2026. As of early July, the Yes side (that it will) was trading at roughly 33%.
July 3, 2026 · Prediction Market
Will the US Government Pull Access to Another Anthropic AI Model in 2026?
After Commerce ordered a temporary June suspension of foreign access to Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5, a new market now bets on whether Washington will curtail public access to another Anthropic model before year's end.
23–31%
"Yes" trading odds on recurrence
2
Models suspended: Fable 5 & Mythos 5
~19
Days from directive to restored access
~$10.4k
Total market volume
Market implied odds — will access be removed again?
Column heights scaled to the market's implied probability. Odds are fluid.
How it unfolded
~Jun 12
Directive issued
Commerce halts foreign access, citing national security.
→
Response
Global shutoff
Anthropic disables both models worldwide; disputes the order.
→
~Jul 1
Access restored
Restrictions lifted after enhanced safeguards.
POWER PRAISED
Early users said Fable 5 enabled work "not possible before."
Described as powerful even for advanced cybersecurity tasks.
ACCESS CONCERNS
Fears of identity or citizenship verification.
Rising API pricing and exclusion of general users.
Easing may be short-term, not a permanent fix.
A precedent shift: from chip export controls to restricting access to the frontier models themselves.
Market resolves YES if, by Dec 31, 2026, formal US federal action removes general public access to another Anthropic model — including foreign restrictions that effectively cut US access. Similar scrutiny could reach competitors such as GPT-5.6.
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