A pointed question circulating in AI circles this week—could artificial general intelligence arrive by year's end?—has reignited one of the field's most contentious debates, pitting optimistic lab leaders against skeptical academics and forecasters. The prompt, framed simply as "AGI by EOY?", crystallizes a divide that has only sharpened as 2026 progresses, with credible voices staking out positions separated by years, if not decades.
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