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Polymarket quant bot built with Claude Fable 5 reports about $288K profit over 42 days

July 2, 2026 at 00:15 EDT

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A developer used Anthropic's latest model, Claude Fable 5, to improve a Polymarket quant trading bot that reportedly earned $288,872 over 42 days starting April 30, 2026. It is said to have averaged $6,878 in daily profit with a 56% win rate, delivering a 531.8% ROI on an initial deposit of $54,300.

42-Day Run · AI-Assisted Trading Bot

A Claude-Tuned Bot Turned a 56% Edge Into $288K

A quantitative trading bot on Polymarket's short-term Bitcoin markets reports $288,872 in profit since April 30 — grinding a razor-thin win rate across tens of thousands of high-frequency trades. Figures are self-reported and unverified.

$288,872

Cumulative profit since Apr 30

~$6,878

Average profit per day

30,670

Predictions over 42 days

~30/hr

Trades executed per hour

The edge is razor-thin — the volume is what compounds it

Win rate vs. coin-flip: only 6 points of advantage per prediction.

50%

Coin flip

56%

The bot

How the small edge accumulates

Claude Fable 5 refines existing quant logic

→

~30 short-term BTC trades / hour

→

6-point edge repeated 30,670 times

→

$288K compounded profit

Why it can work

Fast-moving short-term markets suit high-frequency execution
A tiny per-trade edge scales across huge volume
AI-assisted logic drew developer interest

Read with caution

Figures self-reported, no third-party verification
Covers only one specific 42-day period
Net returns after fees and slippage unclear
Reproducibility and risk management undisclosed

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