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US and Iran trade tanker strikes as six-month war lifts oil toward $100

September 7, 2026 at 06:50 EDT

Policy & Regulation
Finance

The United States and Iran exchanged attacks on oil tankers over the weekend, extending a six-month conflict that has squeezed the Strait of Hormuz and pushed Brent crude toward $97 a barrel, with Goldman Sachs warning prices could reach $120 if shipping attacks intensify.

September 7, 2026 · Strait of Hormuz

Tanker war, six months in

The United States and Iran traded strikes on oil tankers over the weekend, tightening a chokehold on Hormuz and sending Brent toward $97 a barrel.

Iranian tankers hit by US forces (2 disabled, 1 destroyed)

$97

Brent near a July high vs ~$70 pre-war

$120

Goldman Sachs upside if shipping attacks intensify

6 mo

Conflict since US-Israeli attacks on Feb. 28

Oil scenarios, drawn to scale

Goldman $80 if flows normalize · spot ~$97 · $120 if attacks broaden

$80

Normalize

$97

Spot now

$120

Intensify

Takeaway: weekend tanker hits sit closer to Goldman’s stress case than to a return to normal exports.

Market hedge

Goldman says diesel and natural gas capture the shock better than crude; diesel has more than doubled this year.

Political cost

A late-August survey found 63% of Americans opposed the war and 31% in favor; US diesel averaged a record $5.85 a gallon.

Neither side has an off-ramp at Hormuz

Iran plans an exclusion zone and Oman-agreed corridor maps. The US says it will keep escorting third-country cargo and hitting Iran’s oil fleet if fired upon.

Pre-war Hormuz flow: ~20 million barrels a day (about 20% of world oil)
Recent Kpler 10-day average: about 13 vessels a day
Kharg Island: ~90% of Iran’s pre-war crude exports

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