Global vehicle deliveries at electric-car maker Tesla are expected to rise about 3% year over year in the second quarter of 2026 (April–June). While investors await progress on Elon Musk's AI strategy, the company's core car business is stalling.
Q1 2026 Results · Tesla
Car sales stall as Musk bets the company on Physical AI
Revenue climbed 16% to $22.4B and adjusted EPS beat forecasts, but deliveries slipped for a second straight year. The growth story is shifting from EVs toward software, robots and a rising wall of capital spending.
$22.4B
Total revenue, +16% YoY
358,023
Vehicle deliveries — below estimates
$0.41
Adjusted EPS, beat forecasts
Where the growth is coming from
Year-over-year change: the car line is flat while software and services surge.
FSD (Supervised) subscribers reached 1.28M on a full move to a $99/month plan.
The capital-spending wall is rising
2026 capex was lifted from the prior plan — funding AI infrastructure, Optimus and Cybercab.
Plus a separate $20B investment in xAI announced alongside the pivot.
The 2026 pivot to Physical AI
Optimus
Production starts in Fremont, targeting 1M units/year . "Human-level" claim draws skepticism.
Cybercab
Robotaxi at Giga Texas — no steering wheel or pedals . Timeline seen as optimistic.
AI stack
Dojo training platform, AI5 chip and the Terafab plant, plus a large existing fleet.
THE BULL CASE
FSD (Supervised) now needs near-zero intervention on long drives
Software & services growing fast beyond car sales
Fleet scale + vision-first end-to-end AI advantage
THE BEAR CASE
Deliveries down 2nd year; BYD rivalry, EV slowdown, tax-credit end
Optimus mass production and factory deployment still ahead
When robots and robotaxis add to earnings remains unclear
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