Gartner Warns Over $3.5 Trillion in AI Infrastructure Spending Could Face Write-Down Risk by 2030

Gartner forecasts that over $3.5 trillion of AI infrastructure spending could be exposed to impairment by the end of 2030, as investment growth vastly outpaces the revenue needed to justify the capital outlay. The technology market research firm released the analysis on October 14, citing a fundamental mismatch: the industry expects to require $8.5 trillion in cumulative capital spending, financing costs, and required returns through 2030, but forecasts only $3.6 trillion in attributable AI revenue—leaving a shortfall of approximately $4.9 trillion. The risk extends beyond 2030; Gartner projects over $4 trillion in asset value could remain vulnerable to write-downs through 2032.