Economists Navigate Vast Uncertainty on Artificial Intelligence's Economic Impact

As artificial intelligence reshapes business and labor markets, economists are grappling with divergent assumptions and fundamental measurement challenges when forecasting the technology's effect on productivity, growth, and employment. The stakes are enormous: different modeling assumptions about how widely AI will be adopted, how quickly, and which tasks can be automated are producing forecasts that range from as little as 0.1 percent added annual growth to as much as 30 percent over the coming decade.