An estimate from Jefferies suggests that as much as 13 gigawatts of planned data center projects in Texas could be at risk following the midterm elections.
Midterm elections · Jefferies estimate
Up to 13 GW of planned Texas data centers could be at risk after the midterms
An estimate from Jefferies points to significant exposure in one of the most closely watched markets for AI data center construction. The figure covers planned projects, not capacity already in operation.
13 GW
Planned Texas data center capacity estimated at risk
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Fastest-growing markets for this infrastructure, per Powerlines founder Charles Hua: Ohio, Texas and Georgia
Estimated at-risk capacity, drawn to scale
Each block = 1 GW. The estimate gives no total for planned Texas projects, so this shows the at-risk figure only.
13 GW
Up to 13 gigawatts of planned Texas projects could face delay or cancellation depending on the midterm outcome. A gigawatt is a very large unit of power demand.
What the timing depends on
Midterm election outcome
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Policy and approvals
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Power supply and financing
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Project timing and certainty
The takeaway
Demand for AI capacity is strong, but the pace of U.S. data center expansion may depend on politics and power as much as technology demand.
Planned, not operating
The estimate covers projects in development, so the risk is to delays or cancellations, not existing infrastructure.
Method not detailed
The estimate rests on assumptions about which projects are vulnerable and how the midterms affect them.
No project-level confirmation
Developers and utilities have not confirmed project-level changes, so the actual impact remains uncertain.
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