Breaking

Three-way exit of SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic seen topping $4T

July 9, 2026 at 10:54 EDT

Funding & M&A
Foundation Models

Based on estimates drawn from the PitchBook-NVCA Venture Monitor report, the combined exit value of SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic through their public listings could exceed the total of all U.S. VC-backed exits since 2000. TechCrunch reported on July 9 that the three companies' combined valuation is expected to top $4 trillion.

July 9, 2026 · Megacap IPO Watch

Three Companies May Outweigh 25 Years of Tech Exits

SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic could combine for more than $4 trillion in public-market value — a figure estimated to surpass the total of all U.S. VC-backed exits since 2000.

$4T+

Combined valuation of the three companies

$85.7B

Raised in SpaceX's record NASDAQ IPO

25yr

Of U.S. VC-backed exits potentially eclipsed

The Big Three, to scale

Listing / target valuation (each block ≈ $250B)

$1.77T

SpaceX

Listed Jun 12

$965B

Anthropic

S-1 filed Jun 1

$852B

OpenAI

Preparing IPO

A different order of magnitude

Prior benchmark raises vs. the combined $4T+ valuation (each block ≈ $200B)

$84B

Uber IPO
(2019)

$70B

All U.S. IPOs
(2025)

$4T+

Big Three
combined

The bull case

Largest set of IPOs ever, showing deep market absorption capacity
Strong AI demand and a record-breaking SpaceX debut above $2T

The bear case

SpaceX posted a ~$5B loss in 2025; analysts flag shares as overvalued
AI firms not expected to profit until ~2028; Anthropic's 2026 compute spend ~$19B

The open question: are these companies priced on future expectations rather than today's business? If all three exits materialize, they would rewrite the history of megacap IPOs.

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